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Liu and Raftery also wanted to look at the effect of education on fertility changes. All the countries in their study sample were categorized as transitioning downward, however slowly, from a period of high fertility. Liu and Raftery’s study uses UN data on fertility rates since 1970 and combines it with data on education and contraception to determine which factors have the greatest effect. Today’s global fertility rate of 2.5 births per woman is down from 3.2 in 1990, but is higher in parts of the world where some countries report fertility rates of at least 4 births per woman. Higher fertility rates can stretch a country’s available resources, while rates lower than the “replacement rate” of 2.1 births per woman can lead to a long-term lack of economic growth. The United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals note the role sustainable fertility can play in a country’s environmental, economic and population health, alongside the ways family planning can enable individuals to realize their own fertility goals. Our work aims to explore what aspects of a country’s education and family planning have the greatest impact on fertility decline.”Īs the world’s population builds toward a projected 10.9 billion by 2100, much of that growth is expected to occur in high-fertility countries of Latin America, Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.

“Policies that increase access to education and family planning are generally thought to accelerate fertility decline by empowering individuals, particularly girls and women, to achieve their own desires in life. “Policymakers in countries with high fertility rates are often interested in accelerating their fertility decline, since rapid population growth can lead to a number of unwanted economic, environmental and public health consequences,” said Liu. In a paper published July 23 in Population and Development Review, Daphne Liu, a doctoral student in statistics at the UW, and Adrian Raftery, a UW professor of statistics and sociology, explore two nuanced questions: Is increasing contraceptive use or reducing demand more effective in family planning? And, is it the number of years girls attend school or the overall enrollment of children in school that makes education a factor in fertility? But new research from the University of Washington analyzes those factors to determine, what accelerates a decline in otherwise high-fertility countries. Widespread use of contraceptives and, to a lesser extent, girls’ education through at least age 14 have the greatest impact in bringing down a country’s fertility rate.Įducation and family planning have long been tied to lower fertility trends. New University of Washington research analyzes global fertility trends.

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